Lol · resolved market
LoL: Hyperion vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56198d99b2621eb6012e82c907dc156c76283452444d58055ca65799fc9da471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hyperionof Hyperion, Francesinhas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Francesinhas | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Francesinhas | 58c | 1,393$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.71 | 1,492 | 48.4%722 W · 770 L | +47.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Francesinhas | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5733…4c87backed Hyperion | 57c | 853.64$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.46 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Francesinhas | 5c | 705.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 358 | 35.5%127 W · 231 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hyperion | 41c | 665.84$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.05 | 1,852 | 39.8%738 W · 1,114 L | -64.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Francesinhas | 68c | 457.13$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Francesinhas | 11c | 299.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 657 | 25.9%170 W · 487 L | -93.4wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Hyperion | 53c | 297.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 1,571 | 55.1%866 W · 705 L | +80.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…cf22backed Francesinhas | 57c | 254.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…7bdfbacked Hyperion | 28c | 176.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Francesinhas | 11c | 118.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,707 | 35.9%972 W · 1,735 L | -152.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Francesinhas | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Francesinhas | 25c | 98.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,384 | 31.3%433 W · 951 L | -133.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…5416backed Hyperion | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…2b4fbacked Hyperion | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 521 | 49.9%260 W · 261 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed Hyperion | 53c | 82.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 545 | 45.7%249 W · 296 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Hyperion | 30c | 76.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 292 | 38.7%113 W · 179 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Hyperion | 22c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 440 | 51.4%226 W · 214 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2888…f1a4backed Hyperion | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 549 | 32.4%178 W · 371 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe197…71ebbacked Hyperion | 66c | 59.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 281 | 45.9%129 W · 152 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hyperion | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 977 | 44.8%438 W · 539 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked Francesinhas | 43c | 50.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,082 | 39.5%427 W · 655 L | -78.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Hyperion | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 889 | 49.6%441 W · 448 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Francesinhas | 63c | 44.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,730 | 29.5%510 W · 1,220 L | -123.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Francesinhas | 36c | 44.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1,608 | 17.5%282 W · 1,326 L | -245.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hyperion | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 2,330 | 39.4%919 W · 1,411 L | -83.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed Francesinhas | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e4e7backed Hyperion | 56c | 39.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…6bedbacked Hyperion | 74c | 35.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Francesinhas | 37c | 32.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Hyperion | 53c | 32.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…0e3dbacked Francesinhas | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Francesinhas | 58c | 24.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Francesinhas | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Hyperion | 53c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…000dbacked Francesinhas | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Francesinhas | 57c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.