Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562dac85dff7c50e9a51bcb70aab17085a9bfb0705c98abc201bebfe5c0cf545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 418.27$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 377.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 213.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 170.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 139.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 128.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 108.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 99.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 93.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 92.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 90.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 89.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 61c | 82.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 81.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 52c | 80.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 63c | 79.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 37c | 79.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 52c | 74.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 70.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 38c | 69.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 67.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 58.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 46.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 45.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 38c | 45.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 41.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 39c | 40.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 38.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 71c | 36.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 50c | 35.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 35c | 34.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…52b0backed No | 74c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 39c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 30.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 29.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 29.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 28.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 27.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 54c | 26.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked No | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.