Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563be04ebc13ae3f9020a7dd238df8551882d9b2963b52868d63211cb0ea0806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26a3…68efbacked Yes | 26c | 677.37$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 327.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 290.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 72c | 287.18$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 257.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 169.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 30c | 166.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 166.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 31c | 157.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 75c | 151.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 146.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 131.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 129.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 104.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 101.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 29c | 99.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 77c | 83.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 62.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 58.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 69c | 44.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 44.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 26c | 41.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 40.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4c95backed No | 76c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 78c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.