Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6303fb8182b8422ab779754c5e217e4dd6e8f3bc055df346425b3ad3d926f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,444$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 577.09$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 536.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked No | 63c | 396.62$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 189$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 38c | 179.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 31c | 176.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 152$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 125.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 75c | 109.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 43c | 100.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 88.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 41c | 86.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 80.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 78.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 75.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 72.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 55c | 72.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 62.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 43c | 58.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 54.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 52.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 49.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 41c | 49.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 47.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 43.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 40.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 40.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 37.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 79c | 31.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 30.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 41c | 29.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 28.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 27.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 25.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.