South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563fd670f0e48a7ce4dd348e205be47852ba2fe575ec11665f9d13c692fb3d02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 62c | 1,243$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.05 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 58c | 995$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.1 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 42c | 796$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.68 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 75c | 724.01$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.01 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 588.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 545.51$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 59c | 335$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 38c | 309$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 62c | 309$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.58 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Under | 44c | 296.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 244.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 38c | 221.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 38c | 221.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 196.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 153.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 76c | 139.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 11c | 126.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 9c | 120.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 9c | 118.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Under | 50c | 99.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 40c | 94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 75.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 76c | 73.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Under | 42c | 71.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…cbd7backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 41c | 32.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…7203backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlético San Luis (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Atlético San Luis won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Atlético San Luis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.