TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlético San Luisof Deportivo Toluca FC, Atlético San Luis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Deportivo Toluca FC37c4,428$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.21,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Atlético San Luis58c1,659$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.7329446.6%137 W · 157 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Atlético San Luis64c1,260$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.44850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Deportivo Toluca FC42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42023057.4%132 W · 98 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Deportivo Toluca FC47c724$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.364936.7%18 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Atlético San Luis69c653.72$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.462,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Atlético San Luis60c627.5$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216b…1376backed Deportivo Toluca FC37c540.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.13450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Atlético San Luis67c488.47$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3765058%377 W · 273 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlético San Luis65c345.79$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.478,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Atlético San Luis52c313.34$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.430754.7%168 W · 139 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Atlético San Luis54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Deportivo Toluca FC46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.855155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Atlético San Luis67c165.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4257157.8%330 W · 241 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Atlético San Luis67c165.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4228158.7%165 W · 116 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Atlético San Luis54c149$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.541,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Atlético San Luis71c129.49$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8847758.1%277 W · 200 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Deportivo Toluca FC32c117.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8719356%108 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Atlético San Luis72c115.73$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3511856.8%67 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e7…b8c4backed Deportivo Toluca FC26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Atlético San Luis76c96.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.116759.9%100 W · 67 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Atlético San Luis68c89.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0547756%267 W · 210 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Atlético San Luis68c89.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9941256.6%233 W · 179 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Atlético San Luis57c79.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6736757.5%211 W · 156 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Atlético San Luis57c79.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6715956.6%90 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Atlético San Luis77c77.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.927957%45 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Deportivo Toluca FC33c71.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5819056.3%107 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Atlético San Luis70c71.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.075660.7%34 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecbb…a8c2backed Atlético San Luis63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Atlético San Luis76c65.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9744959%265 W · 184 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Atlético San Luis76c65.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9738861.3%238 W · 150 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC37c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0533745.4%153 W · 184 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Atlético San Luis63c60.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3233266.3%220 W · 112 L+24.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Deportivo Toluca FC31c57.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8471619.7%141 W · 575 L-49.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c54.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.819240.2%37 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Deportivo Toluca FC36c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Atlético San Luis64c46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5642962.2%267 W · 162 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Deportivo Toluca FC25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2540451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC30c43.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2713023.1%30 W · 100 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed Deportivo Toluca FC47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x44ac…a025backed Deportivo Toluca FC47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f17…d28abacked Atlético San Luis59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC35c39.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6724654.9%135 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Atlético San Luis56c39.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.116160.9%98 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Deportivo Toluca FC31c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.474231%13 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Atlético San Luis59c32.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5663657.5%366 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Atlético San Luis63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8410943.1%47 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3637…8663backed Deportivo Toluca FC48c31.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Atlético San Luis65c30.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.663941%16 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Atlético San Luis53c30.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2516653.6%89 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Atlético San Luis58c29.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.615457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Atlético San Luis56c28.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5418154.7%99 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a5e…f08abacked Atlético San Luis71c21.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Atlético San Luis63c19.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1428665%186 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.