Tennis · resolved market
Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Gonzalo Villanueva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5658bcb95c36f74c151f43044e108be57e615bf865e4041dcdaa0e5f1bdac907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Manuel La Sernaof Juan Manuel La Serna, Gonzalo Villanueva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 20c | 4,325$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.99 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 70c | 3,498$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.49 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 38c | 2,876$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.17 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 2,226$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.26 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 11c | 1,675$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 1,010$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.4 | 322 | 47.2%152 W · 170 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…5d8ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 69c | 957.04$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.81 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 937.57$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.29 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…9a48backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…5985backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 11c | 753.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 14c | 732.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 731$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 461.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 26c | 409.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 77c | 387.45$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 58c | 381.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 73c | 319.68$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 17c | 243.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 27c | 242.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 13c | 228.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 199.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…1e80backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 122.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 121.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 29c | 119.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 38c | 116.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 108.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 34c | 88.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 76c | 87.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 58c | 84.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 48c | 83.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 34c | 80.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 69.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 57c | 61.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 32c | 53.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 53.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…2296backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 143 | 69.9%100 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 181 | 48.1%87 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9923…81dcbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 41c | 41.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 39c | 38.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 35.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 34.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 351 | 87.7%308 W · 43 L | +66.4wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 77c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 40c | 25.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 313 | 66.8%209 W · 104 L | +27.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 513 | 39.4%202 W · 311 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 24.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…ef89backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 54c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 524 | 57.4%301 W · 223 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Gonzalo Villanuevathis page
- Serna vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.