CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - CCT South America Series #8 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56aef4548507e902d7c1f9579019c083f21497f4c76d6404622488546aa97bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FOLHA AMARELAof Keyd, FOLHA AMARELA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Keyd | 29c | 2,611$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.34 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed FOLHA AMARELA | 47c | 1,248$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.22 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed FOLHA AMARELA | 75c | 947.95$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…42f9backed FOLHA AMARELA | 76c | 835.31$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Keyd | 53c | 515$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.95 | 402 | 34.6%139 W · 263 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 50c | 500$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Keyd | 33c | 426$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…9375backed FOLHA AMARELA | 68c | 405.39$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 64c | 368.11$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Keyd | 49c | 358.61$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…9a5ebacked Keyd | 53c | 342.33$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FOLHA AMARELA | 51c | 332.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Keyd | 53c | 320.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 33c | 287.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 64c | 271.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Keyd | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Keyd | 45c | 186.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Keyd | 31c | 161.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…6c41backed Keyd | 46c | 157.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Keyd | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed FOLHA AMARELA | 51c | 96.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Keyd | 33c | 94.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed Keyd | 25c | 92.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…e7babacked FOLHA AMARELA | 78c | 82.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…0b32backed FOLHA AMARELA | 58c | 69.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Keyd | 40c | 63.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Keyd | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed FOLHA AMARELA | 76c | 59.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked FOLHA AMARELA | 75c | 53.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…da94backed Keyd | 53c | 50.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Keyd | 49c | 47.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…5154backed FOLHA AMARELA | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Keyd | 36c | 40.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed FOLHA AMARELA | 57c | 40.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…ba17backed FOLHA AMARELA | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…e87abacked FOLHA AMARELA | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…2489backed FOLHA AMARELA | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…bde3backed FOLHA AMARELA | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…4cd6backed FOLHA AMARELA | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed FOLHA AMARELA | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…2dc7backed FOLHA AMARELA | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed FOLHA AMARELA | 77c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - CCT South America Series #8 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA - Map 1 WinnerFOLHA AMARELA won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA - Map 2 WinnerFOLHA AMARELA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs FOLHA AMARELA (+1.5)FOLHA AMARELA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.