NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b415409d9c1558b12ab8bb25cabb427f162dafddbf06f3040b21f94b9378f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Red Wings, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Red Wings | 34c | 672.1$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Red Wings | 31c | 656.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Islanders | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Islanders | 66c | 455.74$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Red Wings | 33c | 447.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.83 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Red Wings | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Islanders | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Red Wings | 31c | 163.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 69c | 152.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Islanders | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Islanders | 67c | 139.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 34c | 118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Red Wings | 31c | 104.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Islanders | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Islanders | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Islanders | 67c | 68.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…db2dbacked Red Wings | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Islanders | 65c | 52.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Islanders | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Islanders | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Red Wings | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Islanders | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Islanders | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Islanders | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Red Wings | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Red Wings | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Islanders | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Islanders | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Islanders | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Islanders | 67c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Islanders | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Islanders | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Islanders | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Islanders | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Islanders | 63c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Islanders | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Islanders | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Islanders | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.