NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf1912eee71666aa4cd85ca487c844ae4a652dc71b7443b9afa1bf5a21ffa59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 729.89$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.74 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 44c | 239$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 45c | 169$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 45c | 137$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 45c | 118$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 44c | 83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 45c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 56c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 44c | 54.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 36.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5475…fbe4backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Islanders vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.