Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f3f8a3a9ebff6ef4fc2cfd2c306c81f67fe3ca042c9b5a579a142ffa77a2ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 6c | 859.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 347.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 288.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 261.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 255.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 190.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 175.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 19c | 154.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 18c | 143.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 143.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 131.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 15c | 123.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 120.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 17c | 110.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 103.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 100.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 12c | 98.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 13c | 98.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 95.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 19c | 90.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 25c | 89.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 88.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 87.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 19c | 73.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 62.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 61.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 24c | 59.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 26c | 58.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 24c | 50.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 75c | 49.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 42.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 30.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.