Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9274f9b5c35ca533f303b1705c3df398c41e05de1e1d985b1d8150229fac1667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 531.66$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 313.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 242.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 236.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 232.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 193.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 176.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 15c | 142.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 22c | 129.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 57c | 110.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 109.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 96.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 88.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 56c | 81.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 22c | 78.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 69.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 76c | 69.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 25c | 69.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 66.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 65.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes | 79c | 64.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 63.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 46c | 63.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 22c | 62.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 61.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 51c | 59.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 57.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 53.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 51.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 48.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 41c | 41.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 48c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 37c | 39.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 38.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 48c | 37.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 55c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 34.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…4327backed Yes | 46c | 32.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 67c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 28.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 79c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 61c | 23.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 23.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.