Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56fea8e3d922311b1d0531fa22fc6aad902024f7f784c752c80c90eafc35d719
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stonehill Skyhawksof Mercyhurst Lakers, Stonehill Skyhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 29c | 1,048$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Stonehill Skyhawks | 70c | 809.86$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.55 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stonehill Skyhawks | 66c | 547.9$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 47c | 531$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 30c | 504.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mercyhurst Lakers | 36c | 321.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Mercyhurst Lakers | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Mercyhurst Lakers | 40c | 208$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Mercyhurst Lakers | 27c | 186.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stonehill Skyhawks | 67c | 131.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Stonehill Skyhawks | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mercyhurst Lakers | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stonehill Skyhawks | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 38c | 47.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Mercyhurst Lakers | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-1.5)Stonehill Skyhawks won
- Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-2.5)Stonehill Skyhawks won
- Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-3.5)Stonehill Skyhawks won
- Spread: Stonehill Skyhawks (-7.5)Mercyhurst Lakers won
- Stonehill Skyhawks vs. Mercyhurst LakersStonehill Skyhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.