Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5709b52bd93cd688d442cbfceb0d58cd9e08c683ca3ffa4fbc8dd8dd18bb9456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 66c | 235.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 232.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 171.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 77c | 164.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 146.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 118.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 112.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 109.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 104.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 90.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 74.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 74.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 72.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…bb12backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…4f50backed No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 76c | 53.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 53.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 45c | 50.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 52c | 50.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 45.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 42.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 41.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 36.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 54c | 31.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 72c | 28.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 28.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 77c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 68c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 76c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.