NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570ae6773ceb19bbd78db33c97a6c775286b87a6f57379a7920167ec1ce814d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Bulls | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,760 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Kings | 47c | 6,178$2,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.44 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Kings | 48c | 3,701$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.13 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…d2b9backed Bulls | 52c | 2,915$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 50c | 2,272$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 48c | 2,072$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 30c | 1,928$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.49 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bulls | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls | 66c | 1,408$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.53 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Kings | 50c | 1,373$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.72 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Kings | 48c | 580$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…e3b8backed Bulls | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Kings | 50c | 452$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bulls | 53c | 232.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Bulls | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 17c | 192$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 42c | 186$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 50c | 184.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…a167backed Bulls | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Kings | 50c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Bulls | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Kings | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)this page
- Kings vs. BullsBulls won
- Kings vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.