Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57324cadce42408f91b7a87faa45bfa9c11bbdb1bbff3a0fb378d7d2b5ace251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 9c | 1,177$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 1,020$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 819.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c03…51e2backed Yes | 6c | 798.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 8c | 477.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 391.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 379.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 7c | 353.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 8c | 335.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 311.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 255$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Yes | 4c | 252.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 250.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 217.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 10c | 212.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 191.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 24c | 178.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 173.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 168.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 7c | 160.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 24c | 146.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 11c | 132.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…1c90backed Yes | 11c | 120.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes | 18c | 112.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 100.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 11c | 99.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed Yes | 12c | 98.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…d546backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked No | 73c | 73.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 73c | 36.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.