Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf576118a0195739e66fd3977dcf2b2cafa2d3945a72b952376a56574ce45f5bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,895 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 1c | 2,574$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…9ac7backed Yes | 23c | 1,118$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 11c | 644.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 571.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 11c | 472.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 3c | 455.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 4c | 455.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked No | 77c | 447.08$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 430.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 3c | 374.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 331.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 328.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 319.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 314.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 255$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 15c | 230$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 211.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 13c | 209.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 37c | 201.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 78c | 200.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 197.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 192.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 167.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 159.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 8c | 152.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 78c | 151.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 143.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 136.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 132.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 21c | 127.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed No | 80c | 125.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes | 16c | 122.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 23c | 121.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 16c | 119.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 35c | 99.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 89.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…0357backed Yes | 31c | 87.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 67c | 85.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 83.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 80.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 66c | 78.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed No | 79c | 78.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…55bfbacked No | 70c | 60.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…f063backed Yes | 45c | 46.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 44.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 44.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 43.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…9731backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 34.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 73c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 69c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 68c | 22.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…20a2backed No | 69c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…fd9ebacked No | 72c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…5cc6backed No | 68c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…4e9fbacked No | 79c | 17.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8d…541dbacked No | 64c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.