TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,466 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa942…532cbacked Yes34c3,140$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6f…10d2backed Yes35c3,130$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No13c3,036$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.9624966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eea…45b9backed No65c1,580$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd280…792ebacked No66c1,580$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…9fdcbacked No66c1,560$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1665…fc41backed No65c1,550$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No1c1,424$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No71c711.76$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78d0…a337backed No2c681.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No22c652.23$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No11c557.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes63c544.56$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes36c500.23$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.823622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No66c451.07$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.2654143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes47c384.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c336.54$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes65c324.28$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes16c316.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.1390040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes72c291.91$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c287.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes76c276.34$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6666543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes20c273.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.8433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…eb33backed No75c265.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.34551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes38c255$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.541,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes36c245.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.981,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes53c210$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4835843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes25c209.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.271,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c209.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.31,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes34c203$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6423231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes52c192.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.36735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c177.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.643,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No64c174$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes28c171.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6610043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes37c155.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.045042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No64c148.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.151,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c31…65afbacked Yes56c143.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c143.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c142.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c134.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c4a…41f4backed No69c129.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.691942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes42c124.68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c104.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes16c101.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.844656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.151,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6041767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1126253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes27c96.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.223925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf66…3436backed Yes39c90.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.82050%10 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+122.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes26c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes28c82.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3768521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes59c82.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed Yes27c79.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes44c78.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.781,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes36c76.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.139447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes30c74.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.24,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes15c71.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1619133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No66c68.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes21c68.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.811250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes35c67.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2811044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes68c67.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.869142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…1f70backed Yes22c67.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.194156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes22c65.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.187038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes31c65.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1138840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c64.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x014b…243bbacked No61c64.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.613534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41b…3664backed Yes24c62.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes29c62.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3712223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c55.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.43,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No30c53.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.271,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.119531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a7…ab77backed No70c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…03ffbacked No80c44.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.551163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7cd…043fbacked No71c42.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.175666.1%37 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c40.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.781,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No65c38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.712540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No73c38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7433567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x276e…e8edbacked Yes54c37.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No67c37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7932760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes38c36.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.533839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb63…fd7cbacked No79c35.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9682…710fbacked Yes31c33.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No63c31.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6a…0187backed Yes50c30.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.67727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe67…aa58backed No67c29.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48c…20d1backed No66c28.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked No68c28.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.323141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ef…91d7backed No66c26.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No70c25.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.161,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3513360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d0…db89backed No61c22.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.621855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…fa55backed No61c22.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.622744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf03d…2bcfbacked No67c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.063278.1%25 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a05…cb86backed No67c19.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick72cpaid-36.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a3c…4fecbacked No69c18.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.775250%26 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.