Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431ba3028a18bcc2943028447e3fa9b57ec3ff630e064e3b6b5365e0af7868d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,466 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa942…532cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,140$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6f…10d2backed Yes | 35c | 3,130$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 13c | 3,036$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eea…45b9backed No | 65c | 1,580$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…792ebacked No | 66c | 1,580$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…9fdcbacked No | 66c | 1,560$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…fc41backed No | 65c | 1,550$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,424$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 711.76$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.8 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a337backed No | 2c | 681.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 652.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 557.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 63c | 544.56$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 36c | 500.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.82 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 451.07$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.26 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 47c | 384.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.1 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 336.54$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 65c | 324.28$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 16c | 316.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 72c | 291.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 287.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 76c | 276.34$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 20c | 273.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 75c | 265.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 255$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 245.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 53c | 210$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 209.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 209.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.3 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 34c | 203$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 177.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 174$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 28c | 171.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 37c | 155.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 148.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…65afbacked Yes | 56c | 143.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 143.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 142.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 134.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 69c | 129.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 42c | 124.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 104.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 16c | 101.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 27c | 96.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 39c | 90.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 82.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes | 59c | 82.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 27c | 79.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 44c | 78.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 36c | 76.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 74.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 15c | 71.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 68.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 21c | 68.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 35c | 67.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 68c | 67.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 22c | 67.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 22c | 65.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 65.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 64.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked No | 61c | 64.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3664backed Yes | 24c | 62.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 29c | 62.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 55.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 30c | 53.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 80c | 44.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 71c | 42.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 40.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…e8edbacked Yes | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 36.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…fd7cbacked No | 79c | 35.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…710fbacked Yes | 31c | 33.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 31.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 67c | 29.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…20d1backed No | 66c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 68c | 28.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…91d7backed No | 66c | 26.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 25.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 61c | 22.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 61c | 22.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 67c | 19.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 69c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.