TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes48c637.85$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.921,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes32c500.38$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.743622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes51c496.17$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3632157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes19c419.73$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes11c374.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4066543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No42c364.82$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.913453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes27c326.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.245042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c324.09$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No76c320.41$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c311.53$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c270.89$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes21c255$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.561,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No45c219.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.537081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes32c210.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6823231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…c210backed Yes29c199.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.31030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes41c190.78$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No59c184.43$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6624966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed Yes67c183.01$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.218341%34 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c181.03$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.621,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c175$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.24,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed No48c174.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6521235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No53c172.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.78665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No47c168.86$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No63c156$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c149.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.921,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No24c137.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No58c132.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0152322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes40c131$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x486b…d12abacked Yes76c131$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No78c128.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.417576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked No48c126.57$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.477038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed No52c120.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.479447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No34c116.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes35c113.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No56c103.39$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes35c102.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2325029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No76c99.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.741767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes25c99.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c99.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…abdbbacked Yes42c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.012540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No38c89.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9729056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked No38c86.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.910043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed No39c85.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.569836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…f7dcbacked No53c85.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86aa…eb33backed Yes60c84.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.74551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes62c81.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No34c76.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.436819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c75.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.498,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e7…d075backed No70c69.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.772437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc04…f063backed Yes44c68.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes28c68.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3968521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes15c68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.216355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c31…65afbacked Yes62c67.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75d…29a5backed Yes23c61.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes25c59.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9819531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d98…a232backed Yes43c57.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253250%16 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0570…a382backed Yes57c56.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c54.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No53c51.87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.571,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c51.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.693,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No63c46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.841,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes63c45.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes46c44.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3829642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38ad…b263backed Yes50c44.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16aa…dff7backed Yes70c42.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No40c41.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.087065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c40.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.043,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes40c37.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes55c36.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed No53c35.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.447841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed No49c34.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.979142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes46c34.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf66…3436backed Yes62c32.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.152050%10 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+122.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No80c31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.795248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.227648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…c8febacked Yes54c29.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed No58c29.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.185147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes44c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb05c…f02fbacked No58c28.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.021566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c28.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c27.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes44c27.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a05…cb86backed No78c26.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick72cpaid-36.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes40c26.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5312223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c26.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.654,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes58c26.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.147,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes65c25.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No67c23.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes62c23.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3126426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No76c21.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.261,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9682…710fbacked Yes48c21.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No64c20.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.