Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5de11e2e2501a92a918b3d8feb1368b4335caf42d280b9605deba59e9a65d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 637.85$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 32c | 500.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 51c | 496.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 419.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 11c | 374.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 42c | 364.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 27c | 326.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 324.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 320.41$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 311.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 270.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 255$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 45c | 219.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 210.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 41c | 190.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 184.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 67c | 183.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 181.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 48c | 174.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 53c | 172.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 47c | 168.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 156$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 149.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 24c | 137.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 58c | 132.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 40c | 131$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d12abacked Yes | 76c | 131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 128.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 48c | 126.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 52c | 120.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 116.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 113.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 103.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes | 35c | 102.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 25c | 99.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 99.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 38c | 89.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 38c | 86.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 39c | 85.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked No | 53c | 85.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 60c | 84.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 62c | 81.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 34c | 76.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 75.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 70c | 69.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…f063backed Yes | 44c | 68.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 68.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…65afbacked Yes | 62c | 67.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…29a5backed Yes | 23c | 61.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 25c | 59.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 43c | 57.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 54.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 53c | 51.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 51.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 63c | 45.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 46c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…b263backed Yes | 50c | 44.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…dff7backed Yes | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 40c | 41.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 40.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 53c | 35.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed No | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 54c | 29.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed No | 58c | 29.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked No | 58c | 28.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 44c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 78c | 26.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 40c | 26.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 58c | 26.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes | 65c | 25.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 67c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…710fbacked Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.