Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5745e449ab0be1eaa0a7b36466af458921b1bd65fff2a068485fee8f50e0dcdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked Yes | 76c | 482.78$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 45c | 292.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 52c | 191.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 60c | 177.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 12c | 134.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 22c | 132.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 55c | 128.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…a2fdbacked Yes | 42c | 95.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 44c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 56.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 48c | 44.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…e6c5backed No | 44c | 34.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…138abacked Yes | 49c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…b5d2backed Yes | 56c | 21.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 55c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59–60°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63–64°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.