MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574b1a17ece6e693b3e666b880690a5912e403dc8acad40081af6bedbe3d6139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 5,797$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 4,736$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.27 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 72c | 4,518$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.7 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 46c | 2,294$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.2 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,808$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.14 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Houston Astros | 44c | 1,335$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 1,237$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.18 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,233$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 1,137$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.72 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,120$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 45c | 753.91$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.98 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros | 44c | 678.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.16 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Houston Astros | 46c | 659.24$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.03 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 67c | 637$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.62 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 582.03$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 576.11$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Houston Astros | 45c | 445.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 439.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…df90backed Houston Astros | 72c | 410$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 56c | 393.48$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.88 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 55c | 323.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 226$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 127.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Houston Astros | 43c | 120.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros | 45c | 115.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 113.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 52c | 103.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 96.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 94.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 94.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 73c | 85.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 58c | 82.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 80.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Houston Astros | 44c | 79.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 69.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 67.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Houston Astros | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 59.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 56.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 50.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Houston Astros | 52c | 45.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 44.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 29.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Houston Astros | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Houston Astros | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 63c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.