Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.70 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576ae8cdfe5e72cbb15f1a3cda442f5271db7d389777b00d70d6738fa9265421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64db…766dbacked No | 79c | 8,366$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.93 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 20c | 3,594$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.03 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 2c | 3,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 13c | 3,009$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.73 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 48c | 3,008$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 19c | 1,902$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.42 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 22c | 618.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 71c | 279.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…833abacked Yes | 21c | 173.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…c8c9backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 December 15-21?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 December 15-21?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.