Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576f3fc9f0fb9c7c29d07c15149dddfbbea9959bc76de182ab1edfadfda525bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Level UP, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Level UP | 7c | 1,984$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 1,464$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.69 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…d62cbacked Level UP | 22c | 1,399$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.33 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Level UP | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Level UP | 19c | 690.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Level UP | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Level UP | 9c | 389.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Level UP | 23c | 352.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Level UP | 20c | 317.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Level UP | 7c | 242.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Level UP | 19c | 241$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Level UP | 8c | 236.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 189.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Level UP | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Level UP | 22c | 149.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…3c28backed Level UP | 21c | 147.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Level UP | 22c | 114.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Level UP | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Level UP | 19c | 72.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Level UP | 22c | 49.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…a949backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 41.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 40.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…d2d8backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…d44cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…148dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…aa54backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.