Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ccadd6a530010f91f6d7d04ab7b78002bb58154eda9546390e2d79a8c0f885c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Level UP, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Level UP | 7c | 38,505$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.86 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Level UP | 11c | 15,967$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.44 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Level UP | 7c | 5,007$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Level UP | 8c | 4,912$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.44 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Level UP | 7c | 4,735$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.47 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Level UP | 6c | 4,027$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.65 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Level UP | 7c | 4,017$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.22 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Level UP | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Level UP | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Level UP | 12c | 2,461$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Level UP | 12c | 2,450$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.63 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Level UP | 8c | 2,416$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.01 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked Level UP | 17c | 2,158$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.86 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Level UP | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Level UP | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Level UP | 16c | 1,604$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Level UP | 12c | 1,236$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…9441backed Level UP | 12c | 1,150$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Level UP | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Level UP | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Level UP | 8c | 1,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Level UP | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Level UP | 17c | 987$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Level UP | 21c | 955.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Level UP | 8c | 901.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 804$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Level UP | 7c | 799.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1ccebacked Level UP | 13c | 714.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Level UP | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…87bdbacked Level UP | 10c | 620$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Level UP | 10c | 585.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…71c4backed Level UP | 14c | 571.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 9c | 541.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Level UP | 12c | 537.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Level UP | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Level UP | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Level UP | 20c | 455$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 405$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Level UP | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Level UP | 18c | 391.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Level UP | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…2573backed Level UP | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…46fbbacked Level UP | 8c | 266.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Level UP | 13c | 238.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Level UP | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 9c | 209.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Level UP | 11c | 209.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Level UP | 8c | 193.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed Level UP | 12c | 141.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Level UP | 10c | 130.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Level UP | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Level UP | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…317dbacked Level UP | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Level UP | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Level UP | 19c | 95.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Level UP | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.