MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578f06edbd52dbf834d876f74853a5195f64e345ced91e9847c622bae089fa17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 5,036$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 4,482$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.52 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 42c | 1,075$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.49 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 881.33$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 716.92$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 43c | 680$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 58c | 534.61$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.07 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6b…9b5abacked Over | 66c | 449.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 332$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…1ab3backed Under | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 39c | 271.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 60c | 254.61$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 186.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Under | 73c | 169.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 151.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 131.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 129.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 104.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 23c | 71.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 37c | 70.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 60.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 36c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 46.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 35.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 57c | 30.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 65c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.