TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,696 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers29c1,043$303 inLost-$302.5910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals65c457.8$299 inWon+$158.8112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers34c397$134 inLost-$1344,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers35c380.43$134 inLost-$133.823,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals32c307$98 inWon+$208.898,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals67c217.05$145 inWon+$72.0311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals18c181.89$33 inWon+$149.322,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals65c174.95$113 inWon+$62.061,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals32c137.5$44 inWon+$93.53,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals31c129.03$40 inWon+$89.0379543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers39c95.01$38 inLost-$37.515,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Kansas City Royals67c78.7$53 inWon+$25.9728453.9%153 W · 131 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers70c62$43 inLost-$43.2572154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Texas Rangers28c61$17 inLost-$17.0829242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Kansas City Royals33c54.3$18 inWon+$36.3810438.5%40 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals30c49.06$15 inWon+$34.346,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals33c45.3$15 inWon+$30.354,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Texas Rangers68c21.24$14 inLost-$14.4489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals73c16.37$12 inWon+$4.422,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.