MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0e059a269dd1a5dbd7b8f2eac77a4d05a9a5021b6cd048e26601f4d48300c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 8,220$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.5 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 5,555$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.1 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 2,122$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,011$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 689.54$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 672.11$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 499.45$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 319$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 301.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 299.84$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 209.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 16c | 206$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 180.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 143.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 125.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…4800backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.