NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d1dfc8ca922ecfe16667986df35fc388a97f049d348c194f625ab13ed0154d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Bears | 69c | 4,712$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.12 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bengals | 30c | 3,305$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.2 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bengals | 29c | 1,617$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.98 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Bears | 71c | 1,463$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.36 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Bengals | 29c | 1,100$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Bears | 69c | 690.23$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…5a5ebacked Bears | 72c | 595$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Bengals | 32c | 520$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Bengals | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Bengals | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Bengals | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48cc…f76cbacked Bengals | 30c | 298.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Bears | 72c | 294$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Bears | 74c | 262.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Bengals | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Bears | 74c | 216.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…6e68backed Bengals | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Bengals | 27c | 197.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…f10ebacked Bengals | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bears | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Bears | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Bears | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…cc34backed Bears | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Bengals | 28c | 68.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bears | 68c | 59.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…d55fbacked Bengals | 27c | 58.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Bears | 61c | 55.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…e2a3backed Bears | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Bengals | 32c | 51.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Bears | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…41e4backed Bengals | 32c | 48.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Bears | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…40d4backed Bears | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Bears | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Bears | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…f2eebacked Bears | 73c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…4a67backed Bears | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.