Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d2b9d7ca82d38fd6c267ad793e22997160c23f66d670d30690af64f6ccefeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked 1win | 50c | 9,636$4,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,855.09 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed 1win | 0c | 5,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Aurora | 59c | 3,365$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Aurora | 50c | 2,376$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 80c | 2,172$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.8 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win | 37c | 804.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 51c | 782$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.18 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Aurora | 46c | 720$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.8 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora | 55c | 542.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.33 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed 1win | 30c | 500$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 52c | 246.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Aurora | 68c | 127.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Aurora | 48c | 112.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked 1win | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Aurora | 51c | 93.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 51c | 91.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 74c | 90.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 64c | 84.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked 1win | 50c | 60.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed 1win | 43c | 56.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 57c | 56.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Aurora | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 67c | 34.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked 1win | 51c | 29.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Aurora | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Aurora | 70c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…b35dbacked Aurora | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-13.5) vs 1win (+13.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-14.5) vs 1win (+14.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-15.5) vs 1win (+15.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-18.5) vs 1win (+18.5)1win won
- Series: Most kills?Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.