Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe1904be4bad8e4b2aeca9469174b9e6eba2b468bc5e8ae120f8237104919bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed 1win | 36c | 8,896$3,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed 1win | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed Aurora | 62c | 4,795$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Aurora | 64c | 3,479$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 33c | 3,424$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.25 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Aurora | 55c | 2,104$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora | 62c | 1,166$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.08 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Aurora | 66c | 766.83$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.68 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 32c | 643.07$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.93 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed 1win | 43c | 628.44$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.51 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…a303backed 1win | 43c | 512.79$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Aurora | 74c | 442.92$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed 1win | 10c | 399.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 1win | 13c | 355.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed 1win | 40c | 265$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aurora | 64c | 256$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed 1win | 44c | 226.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked 1win | 24c | 214$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…c6e2backed Aurora | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked 1win | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 62c | 183.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed 1win | 34c | 163.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…c837backed Aurora | 64c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…d93abacked Aurora | 68c | 156.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 66c | 155.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Aurora | 61c | 149.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed 1win | 37c | 133.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked 1win | 49c | 117.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Aurora | 63c | 109.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked 1win | 43c | 102.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked 1win | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed 1win | 46c | 97.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Aurora | 61c | 96.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed 1win | 38c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 75c | 90.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win | 43c | 87.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Aurora | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Aurora | 61c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Aurora | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…b0e8backed Aurora | 68c | 66.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed 1win | 32c | 61.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed 1win | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed 1win | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed 1win | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Aurora | 56c | 43.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…ec57backed 1win | 50c | 41.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 72c | 40.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Aurora | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Aurora | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…351dbacked Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…b8f7backed 1win | 48c | 36.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Aurora | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Aurora | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Aurora | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed Aurora | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed 1win | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…5500backed Aurora | 65c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-13.5) vs 1win (+13.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-14.5) vs 1win (+14.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-15.5) vs 1win (+15.5)Aurora won
- Series: Aurora Kill Handicap (-18.5) vs 1win (+18.5)1win won
- Series: Most kills?Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.