TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
1winof Aurora, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,054 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora55c7,293$4,000 inLost-$4,00053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed 1win46c6,171$2,819 inWon+$3,351.82965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+32.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1win47c3,711$1,749 inWon+$1,961.792,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed Aurora5c1,500$75 inLost-$751421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…ca20backed Aurora55c1,500$825 inLost-$8252653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora62c507$316 inLost-$316.1947748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed 1win37c500$185 inWon+$31536054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora64c270$173 inLost-$172.829047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora19c210$40 inLost-$4079343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Aurora64c203.53$130 inLost-$130.262646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked 1win8c200$16 inWon+$184879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora70c170.87$120 inLost-$119.6154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe145…b8f7backed 1win62c115.7$72 inWon+$43.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora61c105$64 inLost-$64.054757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora66c60.61$40 inLost-$4016160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa08a…ad51backed Aurora64c59.55$38 inLost-$38.113857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked 1win36c59.55$21 inWon+$38.1116155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3094…d467backed Aurora69c58.34$40 inLost-$40450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora46c55$25 inLost-$25.1563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora55c50.42$28 inLost-$27.7327548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…e1a3backed Aurora52c50$26 inLost-$262356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed 1win45c41.71$19 inWon+$22.947936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora66c40$26 inLost-$26.453757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win55c32.13$18 inWon+$14.6286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora61c25$15 inLost-$15.2552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora68c20$14 inLost-$13.695841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.