Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e6120617d16a84ef3d5873ac01ae92cd8873fda124a5fe1ace8c52fe9204bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 12,437$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 12c | 6,414$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.4 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 79c | 3,096$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.26 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 2,497$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.87 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,364$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Yes | 16c | 2,140$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.3 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 2,116$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.89 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 1,813$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.5 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 21c | 1,024$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…536bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked Yes | 21c | 918.24$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 21c | 729$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 651.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 17c | 627.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 529.04$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…7cdfbacked Yes | 19c | 408.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 12c | 365.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Yes | 20c | 330$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed No | 79c | 292.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…2a30backed Yes | 21c | 259.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 18c | 245.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…7f9cbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 16c | 178.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 171$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 16c | 143.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 12c | 129.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…06bcbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…beecbacked Yes | 19c | 107.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…adadbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a4…f479backed Yes | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Yes | 18c | 90.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes | 18c | 85.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 15c | 81.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…741dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 80c | 29.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…6eafbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?Yes won
- Will Brentford win on 2025-12-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.