NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e832bd8edb09c6ecda18ace285891576190a459bd1d339f00000d8ddd66f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Kings, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 25c | 2,125$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.65 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Golden Knights | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kings | 28c | 565$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights | 72c | 460$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings | 14c | 405$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kings | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Golden Knights | 72c | 264$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Golden Knights | 50c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Kings | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Golden Knights | 75c | 89.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Golden Knights | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Golden Knights | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Golden Knights | 73c | 55.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Golden Knights | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Golden Knights | 74c | 46.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Golden Knights | 72c | 29.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Golden Knights | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Golden Knights | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. KingsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.