NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab41d014f80c632a84b00353428a686463576d95dffdabd762920706e905f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 49,015$24,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,370.06 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 50c | 26,347$13,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,259.83 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 10,359$4,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,490.11 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 10,001$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000.5 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 50c | 9,000$4,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,460 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 51c | 8,695$4,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,260.33 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 7,688$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,843.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 53c | 7,649$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,400$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 2,400$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.88 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,020$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.54 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 1,955$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 49c | 1,478$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.13 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 50c | 731.05$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.53 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Under | 49c | 711.1$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.66 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 624.62$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 51c | 520$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 54c | 369.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 50c | 327.88$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 47c | 322.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 73c | 319.9$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 52c | 311.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 46c | 295$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…dd60backed Under | 49c | 205.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 35c | 183.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 47c | 171.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 48c | 162.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 51c | 133.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 123.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…9431backed Over | 52c | 118.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 58.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3c…c595backed Under | 49c | 51.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8249backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 60c | 37.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 33.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…c7a1backed Under | 48c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe173…c529backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 16.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. KingsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.