NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1df965ebaf439cc46ddf4f9d19bfbe136aa2ef5850d761a66920244ca203948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Golden Knights, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 69c | 4,441$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.37 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 31c | 3,789$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.31 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Golden Knights | 30c | 3,022$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.69 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Kings | 70c | 2,570$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Kings | 70c | 2,057$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.1 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Golden Knights | 31c | 1,756$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.28 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Golden Knights | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Kings | 69c | 1,427$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.37 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Golden Knights | 31c | 1,089$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…6248backed Golden Knights | 30c | 920$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Golden Knights | 44c | 681.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Kings | 56c | 607.06$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.11 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kings | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Golden Knights | 30c | 386.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Kings | 69c | 363.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 69c | 356$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings | 50c | 343.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…f1b5backed Kings | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…2b29backed Kings | 70c | 320$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Golden Knights | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Golden Knights | 30c | 271.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a0fbacked Kings | 70c | 270$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Kings | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Kings | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Golden Knights | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Kings | 52c | 185.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Golden Knights | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 111.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Kings | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…86b2backed Golden Knights | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Golden Knights | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Golden Knights | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Golden Knights | 44c | 95.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…dcaabacked Golden Knights | 49c | 81.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings | 69c | 65.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Kings | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 60c | 63.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Kings | 70c | 51.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 164 | 63.4%104 W · 60 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Kings | 70c | 38.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Kings | 61c | 34.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…2d71backed Kings | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kings | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Kings | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…745bbacked Kings | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. KingsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.