MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57ebe37bc1f66ccdf40ed425be202bbf7d93f4baaf384b5f3c99ea36ba540513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 33c | 581.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 33c | 410$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 394.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 9c | 366$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 355.74$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 307.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 67c | 295$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 77c | 269.44$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 254.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 21c | 245.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 67c | 232$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 160.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 45c | 152.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 32c | 133.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 126.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 22c | 105.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 98.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 90.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 72.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 51c | 46.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 38c | 42.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 33c | 33.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 54c | 18.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.