MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9d6c66765d73f290aefe9cd4ffcda872665a72a1af46fd27229b6093c34a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,640$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 1,078$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 854.15$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 732.51$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 438.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…5a2fbacked Over | 76c | 438.16$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 25c | 406.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 25c | 282.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 75c | 254.39$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 232.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 204.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 183$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 45c | 179.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 173.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 56c | 116.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 61c | 96.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Under | 25c | 59.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 53.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 25c | 48.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 46.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 75c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 37c | 31.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 54c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.