Middle East · resolved market
Khaled Mashal public appearance by September 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57fc1d58481e3084509710c62d94091c5a289581011a65cbcbda840ee78e4524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,584$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 15c | 1,144$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 75c | 671.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 24c | 654.42$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 4c | 442.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 350.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 79c | 290.9$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…63a9backed Yes | 19c | 236.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 27c | 230.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 222.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 200.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 75c | 182.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 176.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 175.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2320…f704backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 11c | 134.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 133.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 127.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 16c | 122.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 12c | 106.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3b…851abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…5f0abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 51c | 95.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 29c | 85.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…fd45backed Yes | 48c | 85.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…bd46backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…ad3cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 72c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 80c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.