Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58261702115fd8828746712791f359ee005586306f5931c0646bbb4c54fb6082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 30c | 553.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 435.57$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 210.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 144.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 77c | 143.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 126$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 121.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 15c | 107.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 99.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 97.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 94.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 29c | 85.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…a818backed No | 66c | 73.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 69.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 67.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 62.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 57.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 56.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 54.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 52.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 38.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 36.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 32.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 77c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5307…d0ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.