Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a9442206e9c177236f1757e2fb3fe218c2d07defc0c957a690c9c071522e70d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 15c | 554.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 409.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 305.18$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 292.68$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 264.37$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 229.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 168.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 166.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 43c | 158.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 10c | 151.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 146.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 132.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 127.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 46c | 127$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 125.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 124.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 123.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 116.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 53c | 113.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 112.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 109.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked Yes | 46c | 109.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 51c | 102.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 100.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 58c | 96.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 45c | 94.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 24c | 92.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 83.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 82.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 74.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 73.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 60.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…b100backed No | 78c | 59.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 58.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 58.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 49c | 56.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 51c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 54.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 54.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 53.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 34c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 50.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 53c | 49.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…2970backed No | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 46.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 43.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…3afdbacked No | 78c | 42.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 54c | 41.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 45c | 40.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 46c | 39.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 74c | 34.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 40c | 32.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 30.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 64c | 27.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 24.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.