Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c09ba643b9a160e83a042721635bd96123d98bf1ea0006d18a0aa3319c0253d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 3,529$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 432.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 297.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 203.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 178.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 13c | 148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 12c | 144.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 141.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 47c | 136.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 135.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 119.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 94.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 93.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 91.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 31c | 84.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 81.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 79.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 61c | 76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 51c | 65.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 49c | 57.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 56.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 50.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 63c | 45.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 31c | 44.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 34c | 43.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 49c | 42.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 40.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 49c | 38.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 36.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 33.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.