Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Arthur Cazaux
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583a6e3155c6c5210d229fed6389713503fbff6b5137801fb5c173d49ade023b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Shang, Cazaux
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cazaux | 45c | 4,275$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.71 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Shang | 50c | 4,172$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.54 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cazaux | 36c | 1,600$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.3 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shang | 49c | 1,063$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.34 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Cazaux | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Cazaux | 10c | 999$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.43 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cazaux | 49c | 950.3$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.15 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94b…d34abacked Cazaux | 51c | 803.03$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shang | 53c | 737.67$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.93 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cazaux | 59c | 722.39$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.51 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Cazaux | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shang | 57c | 596$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.25 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 47c | 592.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.43 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Shang | 50c | 430.57$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cazaux | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Shang | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cazaux | 26c | 389.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.23 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…e732backed Shang | 54c | 371.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Cazaux | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Shang | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Shang | 53c | 115.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Shang | 46c | 113$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 37c | 108.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Cazaux | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Shang | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Cazaux | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Cazaux | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Cazaux | 25c | 76.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Cazaux | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Shang | 51c | 51.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cazaux | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shang | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cazaux | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cazaux | 48c | 39.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Cazaux | 51c | 36.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Shang | 75c | 14.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.