MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58726797ffd4365d215b2507819a95ecd8d559902330ec71d97c2ae141a86daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Giants | 41c | 20,192$8,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,913.36 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Cubs | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,800 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 27c | 9,614$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.35 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Giants | 50c | 4,838$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.85 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 22c | 3,049$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.57 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Giants | 61c | 1,306$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.47 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cubs | 52c | 1,114$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.56 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Giants | 41c | 1,095$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.17 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cubs | 59c | 700$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Giants | 41c | 664.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.34 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…bfacbacked Giants | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Giants | 41c | 485$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Giants | 21c | 449.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.91 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cubs | 59c | 415.46$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Giants | 41c | 340$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Cubs | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 62c | 325.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Giants | 40c | 278.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Giants | 41c | 201.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Giants | 37c | 164.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 60c | 149.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 38c | 135.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 51c | 112.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Giants | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Giants | 31c | 66.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Giants | 73c | 62.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Giants | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 59c | 45.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…4925backed Cubs | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…cda6backed Giants | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Giants | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…f3d4backed Cubs | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Cubs | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.