Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58953000c7039c00e099d9c754a9f15bcd0b1712f1e0e5e12e92420e967c3ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 1,901$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.54 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 29c | 1,052$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 980.19$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 811.01$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 70c | 496.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 50c | 400.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 290$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 135.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 105.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 34c | 104.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 90.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 68c | 60.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 68c | 60.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 43c | 36.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 31c | 33.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…6556backed Under | 59c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 65c | 25.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Under | 63c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.