Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7064928440b7e66b58fd809710ec732fd296ab0ef61c7433a2bcd8f4fc4a7b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 3,316$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.15 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 2,779$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.89 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,390$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.57 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 29c | 1,373$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 36c | 645.46$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.82 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 13c | 622.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 30c | 397.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.08 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 38c | 267.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 59c | 146.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 15c | 140.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 16c | 130.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 13c | 106.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 53c | 99.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 84.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 81.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 80.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 15c | 71.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 59c | 70.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 52c | 60.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 56c | 50.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 45c | 43.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 39.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 52c | 31.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 30.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 51c | 27.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Over | 57c | 27.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 61c | 22.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…fecdbacked Under | 48c | 22.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.