Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Emilio Gonzalez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x589e3a005c47851b597b96e592d88616193df1777684d72e357df7d5b8cb3f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe33f…88b8backed Yes | 7c | 4,535$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 3c | 2,222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0a19backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6838…4fabbacked Yes | 5c | 746.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 7c | 724.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 8c | 707.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 610.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…15b2backed Yes | 11c | 496.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 14c | 483.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 3c | 416$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 303.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 4c | 298.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…9401backed Yes | 8c | 297.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 9c | 221.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 77c | 82.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Emilio Gonzalez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?this page
- Will Eileen Higgins win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Ken Russell win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?No won
- Will Xavier Suarez win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.