NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d1da2c295c40d41dd036e07038986ef0eac81281e0732ad79d3e4f1e08a2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Capitals, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Capitals | 33c | 27,100$8,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,943 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…5ba7backed Kings | 67c | 16,700$11,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,511 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Kings | 67c | 10,400$6,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Capitals | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Kings | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Capitals | 32c | 465.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 67c | 408.35$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kings | 66c | 231.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Kings | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Capitals | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Kings | 68c | 149$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Kings | 66c | 140.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…a7febacked Capitals | 34c | 93.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 68c | 85.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Capitals | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Capitals | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Capitals | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Kings | 69c | 55.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Capitals | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Kings | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…1deabacked Kings | 68c | 45.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Kings | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Capitals | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Kings | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Kings | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Capitals | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Kings | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…0a1cbacked Kings | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.