NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14457c8cbb6e1f7cd158432c6193ed4e07c020b2597d5df0e96796aeb82fabb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 52c | 101,064$52,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,153.81 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 48c | 25,215$12,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,111.88 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 11,530$5,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,935 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 9,689$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.04 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 48c | 6,627$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,446.08 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 5,222$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.44 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,917$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Under | 49c | 3,630$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.3 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -11.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 2,975$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.43 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 2,136$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.7 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 50c | 2,037$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.29 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 2,023$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.96 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 49c | 1,637$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.95 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 1,099$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.26 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 505.98$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 49c | 343$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…1749backed Over | 52c | 201.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…a2d7backed Under | 49c | 197.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 49c | 98.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…9095backed Under | 64c | 93.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Under | 48c | 73.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Over | 60c | 66.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…24fcbacked Under | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Kings vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.