Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d72bcc28b3fc660bee67a9a6c236f40d0fa5be68daa59da5c39187ed1c38bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed Yes | 1c | 5,207$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 1,087$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.24 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 337.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 272.81$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 266.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 27c | 255.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 229.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 188.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 20c | 176.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 173.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 161.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 21c | 159.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 15c | 147.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 64c | 141$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 140.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 36c | 91.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 91.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 89.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 89.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 80.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 69.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…472fbacked No | 74c | 67.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 32c | 64.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 76c | 63.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 32c | 62.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 35c | 62.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 17c | 58.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 39c | 56.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 55.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 50.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 46.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 27c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 71c | 40.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 37.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 42c | 36.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 34.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 36c | 32.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 32c | 31.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 36c | 30.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 64c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.