Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6487adaa742b1f6e6a089d22c4d1f6c0404ae0524f5b75672a022ecca2e487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 23c | 299.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 277.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 55c | 257.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 228.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 194.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 180.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 173.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 171.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 37c | 134.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 133.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 130.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 121.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 115.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 115.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 111.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 27c | 106.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 106.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 56c | 106.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 99.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 95.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 94.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 20c | 94.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 92.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 57c | 87.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 85.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 80.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 79.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 74.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 73.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 69c | 72.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed No | 43c | 69.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 65.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 35c | 64.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 48c | 62.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 55.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 36c | 54.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 38c | 52.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 51.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed No | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 47.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 46.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 62c | 46.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 58c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 45.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 45.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 44.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 37c | 41.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 60c | 40.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 32c | 40.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 39.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 36c | 38.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 48c | 38.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 66c | 37.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 37c | 34.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 57c | 34.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 31.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 36c | 30.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 50c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 65c | 28.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 67c | 28.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…8a2ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50f5…7f85backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 61c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 64c | 16.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.